Am Donnerstag, 10. September findet in Baar, in den Räumlichkeiten der Bitcoin Suisse AG ein interessanter Tech-Talk statt: Perry Despeignes von Augur gibt ein Überblick über Augur.net, eine der ersten und vielversprechendsten Applikationen welche die Ethereum API und Blockchain nutzt. Augur soll das Verhalten der Märket voraussagen können, ja gar ein Orakel für alles werden und erst noch komplett dezentral funktionieren.
The Augur Project aims to leverage the „Wisdom of the Crowd“ to become the world’s „Early Warning System for Everything.“ We are building the world’s first global, open, decentralised prediction market platform where anyone, anywhere can create prediction markets and speculate on them and where the rest of us can easily monitor that speculation to get a clearer sense of where things are going — which big events of interest, that matter most to us, are likely or 1 unlikely to happen.
Too many of the surveys, polls, experts and other mass media we currently rely on to get a sense of where things are going and to make good judgements about the right course of action are contaminated by “noise” — by bias, ego, error, flawed methods, ideology, groupthink, habit, inertia, political correctness, taboo, vested interests, ulterior motives, fragmentation, deception, intimidation, cults of celebrity, cliques of punditry, flat-out ignorance, inaccuracy and random fluff. „Experts“ are often wrong – sometimes catastrophically so. Imagine a better Early Warning System – for Everything – that tapped into the collective intelligence and awareness of Humanity. Imagine a virtual Crystal Ball that pooled our collective knowledge and even pooled our biases so that most of those biases canceled each other out. Imagine an easy to read Weather Report that’s about a lot more than just the weather.
That’s what Augur endeavors to become based on the the fundamentally simple premise that a million+ minds are better than one
The speaker’s background
Perry was an economics correspondent the Financial Times, Fortune and Investors Business Daily after majoring in economics at Harvard. He is a fan of leading indicators and of „big data“ generally, long before it was buzzworded. Before the 2007 crash, he uncovered heavy insider selling by homebuilder executives, used futures markets to gauge the surprising extent of Wall Street’s dependence on the Fed, was first to report the Fed’s formal brainstorming over unconventional stimulus options and how the U.S. government’s future financial challenges were massively underestimated. He developed regressions to assess which nations might outperform or underperform going forward based on which were „underpriced“ or „overpriced.“ He manages various special projects for info services group Serenity, Augur and the Forecast Foundation.